The Brief: Issue Fifty-One

South America

Eruption of violence in Catatumbo displaces thousands as rebel conflict returns to Colombia
by Joe Langham

The logo for the Ejército de Liberación Nacional. (Image Credit: National Liberation Army, Wikimedia Commons).

The recent violence in Catatumbo began in mid-January, as the guerilla insurgency group Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) launched a campaign to root out dissident ex-FARC rebels, already claiming the lives of at least 80 people. FARC, a communist guerilla group, was dismantled in a peace agreement in 2016 (to which ELN was never a party), though fragments continue to fight. The agreement marked a landmark end to decades of war, and since 2022, President Gustavo Petro, himself an ex-rebel, was in talks to negotiate a similar peace with the ELN.

Beyond eliminating the remaining FARC elements, the seizure of 7,000 hectares of coca crop land and key drug trafficking routes are also at stake for the ELN. The renewed conflict has put an end to peace talks between Petro’s government and the ELN for the foreseeable future, as Petro announced via X: ‘The ELN has chosen the path of war and war will come’. Thousands of Colombian army troops have now been deployed, and exceptional powers have been declared in an attempt to take control of the region. 

The sudden violence has displaced 32,000 people who fled their homes in fear of being caught in the bloodshed, many with only the clothes on their backs. Thousands have sought the safety of Cúcuta on the Venezuelan border, overwhelming the city’s capacity to provide shelter and provisions. Though President Petro has declared a state of emergency to provide extra humanitarian assistance, the sudden influx of refugees poses enormous challenges, with fears around sustaining adequate provisions and local public health. 

Africa

Rwandan-backed rebels take city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
by Daniel Cramphorn

United Nations peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s North Kivu province in 2022. (Image Credit: MONUSCO Photos, Wikimedia Commons).

Goma, one of the largest cities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was taken by a Rwandan-backed militia, the ‘March 23 Movement’ (M23), between 25 and 30 January. Goma is situated directly adjacent to the Rwandan border on the shores of Lake Kivu, and has a population of around 750,000 people, plus 500,000 refugees.

The Kivu provinces of the eastern DRC have seen on-and-off conflicts since the Congolese wars of the 1990s, in turn sparked by the aftermath of the Rwandan Genocide. M23 is an ethnic militia led by the Tutsis, founded in 2012, and according to a United Nations report set up by the Rwandan government. M23 claims that it is fighting to protect ethnic minorities in Kivu from the Congolese government.

The conflict threatens to have impacts spreading beyond the DRC and Rwanda, with a risk of further displacement in an already heavily refugee-laden region. North Kivu is also an important source of minerals used in the production of mobile phones, and the conflict could impact global supply, with several mining areas having already fallen into rebel hands.

Countries across Africa have voiced their increasing concern over the conflict. 13 South African peacekeepers have been killed by M23, leading to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa stating that further attacks would be a ‘declaration of war’ by Rwanda. Meanwhile, the East African Community and Southern African Development Community, comprising 22 states between them, met in Tanzania on 8 February to work on a solution to the conflict.

Asia

It’s Lights Out as Prabowo Slashes Government Budgets
by Tamara Long

The new Indonesian capital, Nusantra, under construction in 2024. (Image Credit: East Kalimantan Public Works and Public Housing Office, Wikimedia Commons).

Things are noticeably darker in Indonesia’s cabinet, specifically the lobby of the Ministry of Economy where the lights have been turned off to cope with a 52 percent budget cut. President Prabowo Subianto’s 2025 State Budget (APBN) and Regional Budget (APBD) have revealed a significant Rp306.69 trillion budget cut across multiple ministries and government agencies. 

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has identified 16 categories for budget cuts, amongst which the most significant are office supplies, rental costs, and research and analysis. The ministries most affected by the budget cuts were the Ministry of Public Works and Housing and the Ministry of Housing and Settlements, which lost 73 percent and 69 percent of their budgets respectively. The largest budget cut was that of the Nusantara Capital Authority (IKN), an agency that oversees the development of Indonesia’s new capital, which lost 75 percent of its budget.

The extreme austerity measures are one of the only ways for President Prabowo to maintain his large cabinet of over 48 ministries and agencies whilst maintaining his campaign promises, such as his flagship free school meals program. Whilst some see the cuts as a remedy for Indonesia’s corrupt bureaucracy, many worry that cuts to public infrastructure and housing marks a dark road for Indonesia’s already failing public sector, particularly in its more remote regions

Judge temporarily blocks USAID dismantlement – but impacts of the dismantlement are already being felt
by Ralph Woods

A refugee camp in Rakhine State, Myanmar. (Image Credit: Department for International Development, Wikimedia Commons.)

A judge has temporarily blocked President Trump from dismantling the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The order has bought some time for the millions around the world who depend on the US as the largest aid donor, however much of the damage has already been done by the instability. Under President Trump’s plans USAID will be effectively crippled with only 611 due to be kept out of over 10,000 currently employed.

One of the largest impacts has been on refugees from Myanmar fleeing from civil war and natural disaster currently dispersed across refugee camps in Bangladesh and Thailand. In Thailand International Rescue Committee funded hospitals were closed and locked after receiving the executive order. The same day the judge’s order was issued, an ex-patient of a USAID funded hospital died after being discharged.

Refugees have been told to “self-organise” services while aid efforts are transitioned to the struggling Thai authorities which may be able to cope in the short term but will likely not be able to sustain the services long term. Across the border in Myanmar itself the US has been the largest provider of aid and without it, there are growing worries of imminent famine impacting two million people, with one humanitarian worker describing it as “mayhem”.

Meanwhile in Ghana with the mosquito breeding season fast approaching anti-malaria supplies are stuck inside warehouses and in Haiti HIV medicines are being withheld from mothers giving birth, all pending approval from US officials who have been fired.