The Brief: Issue Fifty

South America

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro charged over attempts to subvert 2022 election
by Daniel Cramphorn

Bolsonarist rioters on the roof of the National Congress Building in Brasilia on 8 January 2023 (Image Credit: TV BrasilGov, Wikimedia Commons).

Former far-right President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro has been indicted by the federal police for planning a coup to maintain his grip on power during the 2022 presidential election, which he lost to the socialist President Lula by a slim margin of 51 percent to 49 percent.

Police allege that Bolsonaro co-ordinated with ministers and senior figures within the armed forces for three years to bring about a military coup to overturn a potential election loss, but the plan was abandoned in December 2022 due to a lack of support from the chiefs of the armed forces.

In the aftermath of the 2022 election Bolsonaro’s supporters, inspired by the 6 January attack in the United States, launched a riot on 8 January 2023, seven days after Lula’s inauguration, against the National Congress, Supreme Court, and presidential palace in Brasilia, making a separate attempt to spark a military coup to restore Bolsonaro to the presidency.

Bolsonaro has long held an ambivalent attitude to democracy, glorifying the military dictatorship which governed Brazil from 1964 until 1985, alongside other Latin American dictatorships. He has previously said that he believes the Brazilian dictators and Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet did not go far enough in their oppression.

Since June 2023 Bolsonaro has been banned from running for elected office until 2030 due to his attempts to subvert the democratic process, making a comeback for the former president highly improbable.

Africa

Over 100 killed in Darfur airstrike as Sudanese civil war intensifies
by Ralph Woods

Map of control in Sudan as of December 2024. Areas in pink are controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces, areas in teal-grey are controlled by the Rapid Support Forces. (Image Credit: ElijahPepe, WIkimedia Commons).

This week the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) killed over 120 people in an airstrike on a market in the Darfur region of Sudan in the continuing war. Since the war began in April 2023 more than 61,000 people have died in Khartoum state. The total number of dead is hard to estimate and could be as high as 150,000.

The war has only exacerbated what was already a humanitarian crisis in Sudan with more than 25.6 million people (more than half of Sudan’s population) in need of humanitarian aid, while 755,000 people face an imminent risk of starvation. The healthcare system has effectively collapsed with 70 percent of hospitals in conflict-affected areas not functional, leaving the country unable to deal with outbreaks of measles and cholera, as well as high rates of malnutrition.

The latest report from the UN Human Rights Council’s fact-finding mission found that both the SAF and the Rapid Support Forces ‘have committed large-scale human rights and international humanitarian law violations, many of which may amount to war crimes and/or crimes against humanity’.

Last month France was criticised for its role in the conflict as Amnesty International identified French-manufactured weapons systems being used in armoured personnel carriers supplied by the United Arab Emirates to the RSF. The UAE itself has reportedly disguised weapons shipments as humanitarian aid, airlifted injured RSF fighters to Abu Dhabi, and the RSF’s logistics, finance, and PR are based in the country.

Asia

In a Tajik court, justice is very much blind
by Gavin Southway

The location of Tajikistan within Central Asia. (Image Credit: TUBS, Wikimedia Commons).

With the nightmare-inducing conditions at Saydnaya prison in an Assad-less Syria uncovered as this Brief goes out, one may be forgiven for missing conditions in Tajikistan, a pariah state led by dictator Emomali Rahmon since 1994.

The Civil Society Coalition Against Torture and Impunity documented eight cases of torture and mistreatment, including beatings, threats of sexual violence and psychological pressure. Three of the eight cases reported were against minors, some of whom were hospitalised. Many of those tortured were found to suffer high blood pressure and had spinal injuries.

The court system further complicates the situation, forcing defence lawyers to sign non-disclosure agreements and restricting the ability of human rights organisations to access crucial information.

This month, Rahmon opened the country’s new Supreme Court building but criticised judges for supposed poor performance and corruption in the judiciary. Expressing concern that judges misjudged evidence and didn’t give cases the attention they deserved, he said that “over 1,700 decisions by lower courts were annulled.” In Tajikistan, the country’s 400 judges are appointed and removed by Rahmon’s decree.

In a year in which the country’s final opposition leader has been arrested, and eight ex-politicians and public figures are in court on treason charges, many journalists remain in prison. The regime shows no sign of changing: Rahmon won the 2020 ‘election’ with 92 percent of the vote, and his children occupy key positions in government.

Attempting to protect Russia’s diminishing democratic frontier
by Edgar Bloomfield

The Yakutsk cityscape in 2019. (Image Credit: Ilya Varlamov, Wikimedia Commons).

There has been a decline of truly democratic elections in Russia since Vladimir Putin was elected President in 2000. At that point there were competitive federal, regional and municipal elections, including 75 regional capitals which directly elected their mayors. However, this has since declined to only four. 

The regional capital of Yakutsk is one of the last examples of this democratic freedom in Russia. In 2018 it elected a government opposition candidate, Sardana Avksentiyeva, and in 2021 the government backed ‘United Russia’ candidate won by only a 4.6 percent margin. These results have been seen as unfavourable and too close for comfort, resulting in the Yakutsk Duma proposing that its 29 members elect the mayor instead of a general election. This proposal will more than likely pass.

Nevertheless, this has sparked rare protests, and on the 24 November dozens of people gathered in Gagarin Square in Yakutsk in response to the proposed changes. Protests like these have become increasingly dangerous since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 as internal discontent has been dealt with harshly. So, while this was an officially sanctioned gathering there were still arrests with one opposition figure, Nogovitsin, being charged with breaking protest boundaries, and fined 10,000 Rubles (£78). 

These protests are unlikely to change the course of the proposed electoral reform, but they show clearly the survival of opposition, who understand the importance of protecting one of the last true elections in Russia’s diminishing democratic frontier.