The Brief: Issue Forty-Nine

Europe

Irish election: Country heads to the polls
by Ralph Woods

Graph showing opinion polling since the last Irish general election (Image Credit: BSMisEditing, Wikimedia)

Two weeks ago Irish Taoiseach, Simon Harris called a general election for 29 November. In 2020 Harris’ centre right Fine Gael party went into coalition with their historic rival Fianna Fáil, supported by the Green Party. The opposition party Sinn Féin led by Mary Lou McDonald, became the second largest party and won the popular vote, however a number of scandals and a hazy policy messaging have since seen them drop dramatically in the polls.

Meanwhile Harris’s leadership seems to have re-energised his party from where it was once lagging in the polls. Fine Gael now sits at around 24 percent, Fianna Fáil on 20 percent, and Sinn Féin on 18 percent. None of the other parties; the Social Democrats, Labour, the Greens, and Aontú surpass 5 percent, but with margins so close they could be key to forming a new coalition government, which is certain as no party has fielded enough candidates to reach a majority.

Likewise independent candidates could also fulfil this function and have seen a remarkable surge of support sitting at 20 percent in a poll last week. This rise can be attributed to a general lack of enthusiasm for any of the parties.

The housing crisis and immigration rank highly on the Irish voter’s list of priorities, and although this would indicate that voters are dissatisfied with the two ruling parties’ policies on these issues, it seems likely that, with no other significant forms of opposition, they will again be voted into the coalition.

Asia

Six major storms hit the Philippines in the space of a month
by
Jaden Áine Lynch

Satellite photo of Tropical Storm Trami (Image Credit: EOSDIS Worldview)

In the early hours of 24 October, Tropical Storm Trami hit the Philippines. With over four million people in its path, many of whom had to flee their homes, Trami has left at least 136 people dead or missing. 

Although Trami’s effects were devastating, the people of the Philippines had very little time to recuperate: Trami was followed by Typhoon Kong-Rey very soon afterwards, which has killed at least three people. Typhoon Yinxing then hit the Philippines in early October, causing nearly 250 millimetres of rainfall in some affected areas. 

Typhoon Toraji then arrived, although the damage from this storm appears to have been small: although thousands were evacuated, there were no reported deaths. However, just a few days later, Typhoon Usagi hit the country, causing over 200 millimetres more rainfall and a 3-metre storm surge. 

However, this was not the last tropical storm to affect the Philippines in the past month. Last Saturday, Super Typhoon Man-Yi hit, with over 650,000 people being evacuated preemptively. 

Although the Philippines is a country prone to tropical storms, with around 20 each year, these events are unusual. With climate change becoming an increasingly pertinent issue, many are concerned that changes to weather patterns caused by global warming could be a contributing factor to this unprecedentedly extreme weather. 

North America

Puerto Rico votes for statehood
by
Daniel Cramphorn

The Capitol in San Juan (Image Credit: Harvey Barrison, Flickr)

Alongside the presidential and congressional elections held across the United States on 5 November, Puerto Rico also held a series of elections, including for the Governor, Legislative Assembly, and the Resident Commissioner.

A referendum was held as well on the issue of Puerto Rico statehood, the seventh such referendum held on the island. This latest referendum returned a verdict in favour of statehood, with 56.9 percent voting in favour, slightly improving on the previous successful result in 2020.

Alongside this victory, the pro-statehood New Progressive Party’s Jennifer González-Colón won the gubernatorial election, defeating candidates from the Independence Party and pro-status-quo Popular Democratic Party. This was the third gubernatorial victory in a row for the New Progressives.

Despite these successes for the pro-statehood movement in Puerto Rico, obstacles still remain to becoming the fifty-first state. To become a state Puerto Rico would need the approval of Congress, which will soon be under the control of a Republican trifecta. During the 2024 Presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump came under fire for a comedian at one of his rallies calling Puerto Rico a ‘floating island of garbage’. For Republicans, it is possible that the political consequences of statehood may be a cause of concern: the island voted overwhelmingly for Kamala Harris in a presidential straw-poll on 5 November, and would likely send a consistent tranche of Democratic Congressmen, Senators, and electoral votes to Washington. 

Middle East

Yemen: Exchange of fire between Houthi militants and US Navy ships
by Isabel Batt

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) underway in the Atlantic Ocean on 30 January 2019 (credit: US Navy, Wikimedia Commons)

Last Monday, the US Navy reported that it had intercepted a number of projectiles fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen. The USS Stockdale and USS Spruance were targeted by eight drones and a number of anti-ship missiles.

The Houthis military spokesman Yahya al-Sarea has said that the Yemen-backed rebel group carried out a successful attack on three US vessels, including the USS Abraham Lincoln. The Pentagon’s spokesman Pat Ryder has responded that he is ‘not aware’ of any attacks to the USS Abraham Lincoln, and that there have been no casualties and no damage to the two targeted vessels.

These attacks come after the US fired against five targets in and around Yemen’s capital this October. No casualties were reported by either the US Central Command or the Houthi-run state TV, but reportedly multiple weapons storage units were destroyed. Mohammed al-Bukhati, a Houthi political official, vowed last month that these strikes by the Americans would ‘increase’ their determination to carry out ‘military operations’, and these recent Houthi strikes appear to be such retaliation.

On Sunday, the Houthis also appear to have fired a missile towards a Panama-flagged bulk carrier travelling in the Red Sea. No casualties or damage has been reported. 

The Houthis state their motivation as being a defence of the rights of Palestinians and a protest against the war in Gaza, and they claim to only target British, American and Israeli ships.

Africa

Zambia: Lawmaker and fugitive arrested in Zimbabwe
by
Freddie Weaver

Jay Emmanuel Banda (credit: National Assembly of Zambia)

A Zambian MP, who fled the country with a 2,000,000 Zambian kwacha (£57,000) bounty placed on his head, has been arrested in Zimbabwe.

Emmanuel ‘Jay Jay’ Banda, who was facing robbery charges back in Zambia, escaped from Chipata Central Hospital in Eastern Province in August, where he had been confined following his arrest. It is believed that he escaped by climbing out of the hospital’s window.

At a press conference on Wednesday, the Zambian Minister for Home Affairs, Jack Mwiimbu, announced that the MP had been arrested by Zimbabwean police earlier this week. Banda, who had been renting a flat in Harare, has since been kept in custody by the Zambian police, and according to the police extradition documents have been requested.

Banda, who has been an independent MP since 2021, was known to be a close ally of Zambia’s former President Edgar Lungu. Lungu, who lost the 2021 presidential election to Hakainde Hichilema, condemned the arrest, describing it as an ‘emerging and worrying scenario’.

In May of this year, Banda was reported missing, and after resurfacing a day later, he claimed that he had been a victim of abduction. The following month, he was arrested and charged with a non-bailable offence of aggravated robbery, which had taken place back in 2015. It has been alleged by Zambia’s political opposition that the arrest was political in nature, and there have also been claims made that the Government had been responsible for Banda’s alleged abduction.

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