With protests, a hurricane, and power outages, what’s next for Cuba?
by Gavin Southway
Cuba hasn’t had it easy recently. It’s undergone its worst economic crisis since the ‘Special Period’ of the 1990s. It’s almost a country that is the opposite of the rest of the world: basic goods are cheap but hard to find. Fuel in particular, so much so that hitch-hiking is an acceptable and customary way to get around.
Havana in 2011 (Image Credit: Jorge Royan, Wikimedia Commons)
Since the 1960s the US has led a trade embargo against the country, putting it on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. While much friendlier relations were established in Barack Obama’s second term (and Cubans told me when I visited last year that he was popular there), this was reversed under Trump, seeking to protect a voter base of many who have fled Cuba and Venezuela, both left-wing dictatorships. Joe Biden, meanwhile, has not responded to calls to take Cuba off the list, and in both countries, there is an understanding that Cuba is an American second-term problem.
In March this year, a series of protests was launched in Santiago de Cuba, in the southeast. Russia and Venezuela, usually the country’s key sources of fuel, have both been submerged in crises of their own – sanctions due to the war in Ukraine for the former, and an economic crisis in the latter. Cuba is a large island, and a popular way to get around for locals and tourists was via internal flights, however, these have been long gone.
That led to the country gaining headlines in the past month for regular breakdowns at the country’s key power station in Matanzas, in the north. A blackout on 17 October left around half the country without electricity, and the next day a nationwide outage went on for much of the day. Disruptions continued for the next week, it was reported.
Unfortunately for Cuba, the blackouts affected information about Hurricane Oscar, which hit Baracoa in the southeast on 20 October. Schools and non-essential government services were closed until 23 October. In Havana, the government cut internet access to keep services going.
Cubans last year told me that, since Raúl Castro’s resignation in 2021 and the rise of Miguel Díaz-Canel as the Communist Party’s First Secretary, more barriers have been scrapped, allowing Cubans to visit other countries. A 60-year-old lady at a post office told me that the previous December she was able to visit her daughter, a few weeks older than me, in Miami, proudly showing me a picture. Notably, while Cuban Americans (and increasingly Venezuelan Americans, after two disputed elections in recent years) are often described as forming a key Trump voter bloc, this isn’t as stark with younger generations, who don’t see a communist Cuba as much of a danger as previous ones had. Many of these fled Cuba after Fidel Castro’s revolution in 1959 and lived in times before the Special Period.
Cuba’s problems still persist and don’t seem to have an obvious answer. While Donald Trump has said of the communist regime that “it’s not easy and we appreciate it and it’s gonna be changed”, the blockade that he resurrected remains in place. A clear answer in Tuesday’s presidential election might provide clarity, but recent US attitudes to Cuba suggest it may be a few years before any solution arrives.
York Global Affairs 